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With airlines around the globe reeling from the effect of the coronavirus outbreak, and the real hazard that some will be not able to endure the impacts of the pandemic-led slowdown or shutdown, attention stays focused on when the industry will recoup and how long that recovery will take.
There's no model for this – no cutting edge times equal to draw upon – yet as per global travel specialists Atmosphere Research Group, that recovery timeline will gradually loosen up for two entire years after COVID-19 is pronounced as being "under control".
That obviously remains the X-factor, and the San Francisco figure tank hasn't characterized what this achievement may look like:: is it the contamination curve being well and really flattened, or does it mean the arrival and widespread distribution of a vaccine?
In any case, Atmosphere Research Group agrees with different forecasters and industry officials in that the recovery will be a gradual return instead of a quick skip back, and led by domestic travel.
Airlines are probably going to reconstruct their systems, particularly on the international front, starting with key courses yet with a strategic focus on capacity which will support smaller and more eco-friendly airplane, for example, the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 over the likes of the twofold decker Airbus A380.
So how does this play out over the next few years, and who will the airlines be looking to with regards to filling those aircraft?
For the sake of pegging Atmosphere Research Group's sliding timeline against the calendar, we should accept that the coronavirus is generally declared as being "under control" towards the finish of this current year.
The initial 6-9 months of post-coronavirus travel (mid-late 2021, on our ambit timetable) will perceive what Atmosphere terms 'tiptoe travellers' wandering out.
Although this group will incorporate some business travellers, it's expected to be fundamentally close to home and leisure-based trips. This 'first to fly' brigade will be "better educated" and be drawn from the highest income groups, recommends Atmosphere, and can be described as "cabin fever escapees'. They'll mostly be setting out on domestic travel yet in addition chalking up some long-range international trips.
Over the 8-multi month mark (through to mid-2022) Atmosphere predicts a rush of what it calls 'pioneers'. This group will be driven by business travellers as well as mid-to high-level regular customers, with family unit salary of US$125k and higher, and be wandering out on principally long-run international flights.
From 12-18 months they'll be joined by a surge of 'fast followers', as the business sees a 'near-normal volume of business travellers' lined up with solid appointments for the premium cabins of business and first class.. Late 2022, at that point, is when business travel will largely be back to normal, or at least as near the old normal as the new normal will get.
At 16 months to two years after COVID-19 is considered under control (the end of 2022, if COVID-19 is under control before the current year's over), it's the ideal opportunity for leisure travellers to return all at once as the business comes to "80-90% of pre-virus leisure volume", while at 24+ months (2023) Atmosphere anticipates that movement should be "at or above pre-virus traffic".
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